Managing for Growth Series – Economic Update

Managing for Growth: The Canadian, U.S. and Global Economic Outlook to 2020

The End of Congressional Gridlock

Featuring: Peter Andersen, Ph. D. Expert Economic Forecaster

Hogg, Shain & Scheck presented special guest Peter Andersen, Expert Economic Forecaster and advisor to a wide range of companies and industries to a seminar of business owners and guests with a look 4 years ahead.  Here is a summary of his comments.

Dr. Peter Andersen – December 1, 2016

U.S. Outlook

• Entering a different business cycle that will focus on:
• Growth, inflation and interest rates;
• Tax reform with fewer loopholes and lower tax rates;
• Trade relations revisions and ongoing trade low cases
• Immigration
• Easing in regulatory policies
• Suspension of U.S. debt ceiling in March 2017
• Strong growth continues
• 4^th Quarter real GDP growth around 2.4%
• A 2017 fiscal push on employment and output
• Larger contribution coming from housing
• Construction has a big employment multiplier
• Small business hiring expected to pick up

Canada Outlook

• Much weaker than the U.S. economy
• Initial conditions are shaky
• Full-time employment has flat-lined
• NAFTA threat likely to focus on Mexico
• S. interest rate spill-over into Canada
• Carbon tax an issue for competitiveness

Global Outlook

• First OPEC production cut in 8 years
• Fundamental change in oil price outlook
• Copper price surprise- a sharp rebound
• Growth/interest rate expectations fueling USD
• Headwinds face USD uptrend in 2017 though

Please visit Dr. Andersen’s website www.economickeynotespeaker.com to sign up for his Economic Report.

Bio of Peter Andersen:

Peter founded Andersen Economic Research over 30 years ago. He gives strategic economic advice to senior management through boardroom meetings, video conferencing, email commentary, conference calls and the monthly Andersen Economic Report.

The objective is to put economic analysis into terms that are useful for business decision-making. Today we are overwhelmed by economic data and opinions. Peter tries to act as a filter, separating the signals from the noise, in order to provide clients with the useful information that they really need.

His clients include a broad range of corporations and financial institutions throughout the United States and Canada – investment managers, manufacturers, home builders, construction firms, building materials suppliers, insurance companies, industry contractors’ groups and transportation companies.

He has also published a number of articles on business-related topics such as: the digital millennial generation, business leadership, improving productivity performance, the intensification of competition, corporate governance, balanced employment strategies, workforce diversity, a greener economy and the economic impact of disruptive technology.

Peter received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. Before starting Andersen Economic Research his experience included the Bank of Canada in Ottawa as well as the Bay Street investment firms Heritage Securities and Burns Fry.

THE CANADIAN, U.S.and GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TO 2020

Canada

• Oil and other commodities
• Canada’s export response to the CAD
• The Bank of Canada and interest rates
• Household debt in perspective
• A triple threat for Canada’s economy – softwood lumber war, new mortgage rules, carbon tax
• A housing correction in 2017?

The U.S. Economy

• Recession risk
• S. fundamentals – Fed policy, balance sheets.
• The tighter U.S. job market – wage pressure, consumer confidence
• S. housing sector – homebuilder confidence, shortages of supply
• S. business investment – the oil shock, the USD, commercial/industrial real estate
• The technology and productivity mystery
• The U.S. economy after the November 8^th elections

GLOBAL

• Impact of a “hard Brexit”?
• Global financial system risk – Deutsche Bank
• Future of globalization – 2017 elections in France and Germany
• Possibility of slower than expected growth in China